Congressional Insiders in both parties have grown more skeptical about the chances for cap-and-trade legislation, while top political bloggers' predictions break down along ideological lines, according to National Journal's latest surveys.

Only 53 percent of the 38 Democratic Insiders polled this week believed it was very likely or somewhat likely that cap-and-trade would pass in this Congress. That's down from 87 percent who said in June that cap-and-trade was "likely" to pass this year. Sixty-four percent of the 18 left-leaning bloggers polled thought it was somewhat likely to pass, but none thought it was very likely. In June, just 29 percent of a 14-person poll thought global warming legislation would pass this year.

Those on the right saw a harder road for cap-and-trade. "After this week's elections and another painful health care vote on Saturday, there will be zero appetite to pass a tax on energy," said a Republican Insider. Eighty-three percent of GOP Congressional Insiders said it was somewhat unlikely or very unlikely that the 111th Congress will pass the legislation.

Right-leaning bloggers have grown more confident. In June, half thought it was "unlikely" that cap-and-trade would pass this year. Now more than 66 percent predict it is unlikely to pass during this Congress. Many of their comments centered on Blue Dog Democrats' skepticism of the bill, especially following this week's elections. "No Blue Dog is going to vote for this after Tuesday," said Soren Dayton of The Next Right. "That would be electoral suicide."

Some on the left retain hope that some form of climate legislation will pass, though Chris Bowers of Open Left sounded a recurring note: "Something is likely to pass. Whether it will be good is a different question." Democratic Insiders voiced similar skepticism about cap-and-trade. "Republicans increasingly understand the danger of climate change, the need to reduce dependence on foreign oil, and the economic potential of alternative energy," one Insider said. "There is room for a compromise strategy bill that includes investments in nuclear and in safe, renewable-energy technology. But the odds are against including a cap-and-trade system."

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