Jorge Pinon has worked in the oil business since starting at Shell Oil in 1975, eventually becoming president of Amoco Oil Latin America. He currently works as an energy consultant and analyst of Latin American energy politics. In an interview with NationalJournal.com, Pinon talked about the pursuit of black gold and alternative energy. Edited excerpts follow.

NJ: How have you seen politics of oil evolve now that President Obama is in office?

Pinon: It's not necessarily politics, but we in the U.S. have been losing ground.... The United States, according to the Energy Information Administration, we're producing today the same amount of oil that we were producing in 1947. Our demand grows, and there grows our dependence on foreign oil....

We forgot about the [Gulf of Mexico], we forgot about areas in the United States where we could go and explore for oil.... We will never recover our position of where we were 10, 15, 20 years ago. But at least in my opinion we can stop this slide where our share of foreign oil continues to increase. At least we can freeze it.

The amount of oil that we bring in from Venezuela, Columbia, Ecuador and Mexico is larger than the amount of oil we bring in from Saudi Arabia. Our emphasis should be the Western Hemisphere.... I think Brazil is going to be our new energy friend in the Western Hemisphere.

NJ: Since you worked in oil companies in a major capacity, how do you think the oil industry is doing to encourage and invest in alternate energy sources?

Pinon: Why do all the politicians and pundits and experts look for the "oil industry" to be the ones that develop new alternative sources of fuel or of energy? I think that's a little bit narrow-minded to think that you can force or you should expect companies like Exxon or BP or Shell to be the ones that are going to develop and fund research to come up with a new substitute for oil. I think that's wrong.

NJ: Summer is coming, when oil prices usually rise. How do you expect oil markets to look this summer and how do you think that could affect the economic recovery?

Pinon: It's the chicken or the egg. The price of oil is going to depend on the economic recovery. If the economic recovery continues, then you're going to see much greater demand from countries like China and India....

Today, we're in pretty good shape. I don't see any justification today for $85 [a barrel] oil. We have plenty of oil.... There's nothing on the supply side that scares me. And on the demand side, our economy's still depressed.... Through the summer, we should stay below $100 a barrel, within this range of $80, plus or minus and be around $3 a gallon. Now, come the fall I think is the key question. Sometime in the second half of the year we might break the $100 a barrel mark.

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